We propose an innovative method for temporal analysis of integrated environmental scenarios aimed at supporting policy making for sustainable innovation. This requires the study of possible effects of low-carbon policies on the society and, hence, copying with a multi-disciplinary domain. In fact scenarios represent possible future states of the world under plausible conditions and different assumptions, evaluated under various perspectives, such as: energy, environment, economy and societal system. Scenarios are usually produced by independent tools (e.g., TIMES, GAINS and the Social Accounting Matrix), and once they are integrated, there is a need for new analysis techniques to cope with the complexity of synthetizing possible behaviors of the whole system from a significant number of variables of different nature. We propose a framework to enable execution of temporal queries over a repository of integrated scenarios. As far as we know, this type of analysis is new in this multi-disciplinary sector. Temporal scenario queries aim at detecting specified behaviour(s) for the system over time and, hence, at verifying that temporal properties hold. An example of temporal query involving environmental and economical variables is: “Select those scenarios such that if gdp increases some time in the future without that CO2 price has increased, then follows a time period where CO2 emissions increase”. A preliminary set of queries inspired by temporal formulas from the Linear Temporal Logic were defined by field experts and used in a preliminary experimentation to demonstrate the applicability and the scalability of the approach.

Temporal Queries for Sustainable Innovation Policy Making

CUZZOCREA, Alfredo Massimiliano;
2016

Abstract

We propose an innovative method for temporal analysis of integrated environmental scenarios aimed at supporting policy making for sustainable innovation. This requires the study of possible effects of low-carbon policies on the society and, hence, copying with a multi-disciplinary domain. In fact scenarios represent possible future states of the world under plausible conditions and different assumptions, evaluated under various perspectives, such as: energy, environment, economy and societal system. Scenarios are usually produced by independent tools (e.g., TIMES, GAINS and the Social Accounting Matrix), and once they are integrated, there is a need for new analysis techniques to cope with the complexity of synthetizing possible behaviors of the whole system from a significant number of variables of different nature. We propose a framework to enable execution of temporal queries over a repository of integrated scenarios. As far as we know, this type of analysis is new in this multi-disciplinary sector. Temporal scenario queries aim at detecting specified behaviour(s) for the system over time and, hence, at verifying that temporal properties hold. An example of temporal query involving environmental and economical variables is: “Select those scenarios such that if gdp increases some time in the future without that CO2 price has increased, then follows a time period where CO2 emissions increase”. A preliminary set of queries inspired by temporal formulas from the Linear Temporal Logic were defined by field experts and used in a preliminary experimentation to demonstrate the applicability and the scalability of the approach.
temporal analysis
integrated scenario
sustainable innovation
policy making
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11770/312863
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