In this paper, authors focus attention on different threshold schemes, which can be adopted when a model is used for landslide forecasting. In some cases they represent the occurrence probability of a landslide, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned mobility function Y (a function of rainfall heights), indicated as Ycr, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of Ycr or its prefixed percentages. Clearly, the discussion here reported can be easily extended to the case of flood forecasting models. The empirical model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall, Capparelli and Versace 2011) is used for the study area of Gimigliano municipality (located in Calabria region, southern Italy), characterized by a database with 27 historical landslide events in the period 1940–2011.
Deterministic and Probabilistic Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Forecasting
VERSACE P;DE LUCA, DAVIDE LUCIANO
2017-01-01
Abstract
In this paper, authors focus attention on different threshold schemes, which can be adopted when a model is used for landslide forecasting. In some cases they represent the occurrence probability of a landslide, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned mobility function Y (a function of rainfall heights), indicated as Ycr, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of Ycr or its prefixed percentages. Clearly, the discussion here reported can be easily extended to the case of flood forecasting models. The empirical model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall, Capparelli and Versace 2011) is used for the study area of Gimigliano municipality (located in Calabria region, southern Italy), characterized by a database with 27 historical landslide events in the period 1940–2011.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
