Analyzing the Effects of Policy Options to Mitigate the Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Public Health: A System Dynamics Approach

A critical question related to climate change concerns to how rising sea level will affect underserved populations and medically fragile population in coastal zones and floodplains. As sea levels rise, coastal waters will regain near-tidal areas and co-mingle with human-made pollutants, resulting from decades of industrial and commercial activity. This poses potential threat and risks to public health and the environment. It is critical that decision makers will initiate a process of parsing resources to the mitigation and management of these issues. The purpose of this research is to model the inherent dynamics of this process and understand how near-term policy decisions will condition the dynamics of population health within traditionally underserved and medically fragile populations. We use a System Dynamics (SD) approach to model and simulate the sensitivity of affected populations to a range of remediation policy options intended to address these contaminated environments. Our research will assist policy makers to explore and prioritize policies with a specific focus on vulnerability, guarantee that remediation funds will be utilized effectively and equitably, and increase effectiveness of mitigation and management effort.