An agent-based modeling and simulation tool for estimation of forced population displacement flows in Iraq

Forced displacement and migration is on the rise globally. As a result of wars, insurgencies, political persecution, complex emergencies, and climate change, more than 65 million people worldwide are considered as forcibly displaced. This rising number has created significant challenges for humanitarian agencies. Therefore, understanding the causes, movement patterns, and migration flows of displaced populations has attracted researchers. While traditional migration models can be used, more sophisticated and advanced models are required to capture various factors influencing the displacement process and the complex interactions and behaviour of various agents that force people to make displacement decisions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has emerged as a preferred modeling method for complex social and environmental problems including forced displacement and migration. ABM in the context of forced migration allows for a more accurate and detailed simulation by including dynamic interactions of migrants and humanitarian actors. This paper presents an agent-based model developed to understand the nature of forced displacement in Iraq caused by recent conflicts.