Recognising Legal Characteristics of the Judgments of the European Court of Justice: Difficult but Not Impossible

Machine learning has improved significantly during the past decades. Computers perform remarkably in formerly difficult tasks. This article reports the preliminary results on the prediction of two characteristics of judgments of the European Court of Justice, which require the knowledge of concepts and doctrines of European Union law and judicial decision-making: The legal importance (doctrinal outcome) and leeway to the national courts and legislators (deference). The analysis relies on 1704 manually labelled judgments and trains a set of classifiers based on word embedding, LSTM, and convolutional neural networks. While all classifiers exceed simple baselines, the overall performance is weak. This suggests first, that the models learn meaningful representations of the judgments. Second, machine learning encounters significant challenges in the legal domain. These arise doe to the small training data, significant class imbalance, and the characteristics of the variables requiring external knowledge. The article also outlines directions for future research.