Towards Informed Disaster Management Planning: An Approach to Predict Future Urban Hazard Exposure

Considering the high spatio-temporal variability of urban transformations, methodolo- gies, instruments, and detailed and updated information are urgently needed to support adequately informed spatial planning in defining preventive disaster management policies. The authors pro- pose an innovative methodology to predict and assess future hazard exposure in urban areas by combining statistical, geospatial, and scenario-modeling analysis. The proposed methodology is ap- plied to a small-medium-sized urban area by considering the hydraulic hazard to test its validity. The findings highlighted that providing planners and decision-makers with operation tools could be valuable for better risk-reduction planning.