A Practical Method for the Predictive Analysis of Landslides in Sensitive Clays

This paper presents a practical method for the predictive analysis of landslides in sensitive clays. Specifically, the method predicts landslide triggering and the associated retrogression and run-out distances. To this end, a two-stage approach is adopted: firstly, a simplified solution based on the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) is developed for establishing whether a landslide is triggered, and defining the geometry of the unstable soil mass along with the retrogression distance; secondly, the Material Point Method (MPM) is employed to predict the final profile and the run-out distance of the displaced material. As an alternative to the MPM analysis, for certain geometric conditions of the slope, a simple solution is also suggested for an approximate evaluation of the run-out distance. Both stages rely on specific values of the undrained shear strength derived from the operational criteria described in this study. The method is particularly suitable for engineering practice as it is straightforward to apply, and requires a limited number of parameters readily determinable from conventional tests. The proposed method is also validated against a well-documented case study.