FROM CLIMATE VARIABILITY TO MIGRATION: THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Despite the increasing migration from South Asia, very little is known about climate-induced migration and its driving mechanisms in this region. This study examines the mediating role of agriculture in climate-migration nexus using yearly net migration panel data from 1990 to 2022 by employing the 2SLS instrumental variable approach. The findings reveal that the decline in agricultural production, due to critical variability in temperature and precipitation, is strongly associated with increased out-migration from South Asia. Additionally, the study shows the importance of institutional enforcement in determining the climate-migration relationship in South Asia, while factors related to economic growth appear to be less relevant than expected. Overall, the analysis highlights the importance of climate-resilient and sustainable agricultural policies, as well as improvement of institutional quality, in addressing the challenges posed by climate-induced migration.