Mount Ontake landslide simulation by the cellular automata model SCIDDICA-3

Cellular Automata (CA), a paradigm of parallel computing, represent an alternative to differential equations and are used for modelling and simulating very complex phenomena; CA models have been developed by our research group for the simulation of landslides. We present SCIDDICA-3, our most efficient model, a two-dimensional CA model together with the simulation results of the Mount Ontake (Japan) debris avalanche which occurred in 1984. Landslides are viewed as a dynamic system based exclusively on local interactions with discrete time and space, where space is represented by square cells, whose specifications (states) describe physical and chemical characteristics (friction, viscosity, altitude, debris thickness, etc.) of the corresponding portion of space. At the time t=0, cells are in stales which describe initial conditions; the CA evolves then changing the state of all cells simultaneously at discrete times. Input for each cell is given by the states in the adjacent cells; the outflow computation from the cells gives the evolution of the phenomenon. The comparison between the real and simulated event is satisfying within limits to forecast the surface covered by debris.