Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are performed for routine applications using source models and ground motion models (GMMs) recommended by a government agency (e.g., US Geological Survey) or an expert panel (e.g., SHARE project). For important projects, site-specific PSHA involves critical analysis of GMMs and sources for the application region. We adopt the latter approach for a dam site in Calabria (southern Italy), a high seismic hazard region. We consider area sources as well as fault sources coupled with background zones, tailoring a model developed in the SHARE project for the subject site. We identify several problems with assigned maximum magnitudes for fault and in-slab subduction sources. We also add two sources not previously considered – the crustal Lakes fault and the Calabrian arc subduction interface. We select GMMs that are better constrained in the hazard-controlling range of magnitudes and distances than those typically used in prior Italian applications. Short-period median spectral accelerations at the 2475-year return period exceed those from prior SHARE studies by about 10–15%, and those from the Italian building code by amounts ranging from 15% to 96%. Despite the site being located in a region with finite faults capable of generating large events, the 2475-year hazard is dominated by source zones that allow for earthquakes directly beneath the site.

Site-specific seismic hazard analysis for Calabrian dam site using regionally customized seismic source and ground motion models

Zimmaro P.
;
2017

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are performed for routine applications using source models and ground motion models (GMMs) recommended by a government agency (e.g., US Geological Survey) or an expert panel (e.g., SHARE project). For important projects, site-specific PSHA involves critical analysis of GMMs and sources for the application region. We adopt the latter approach for a dam site in Calabria (southern Italy), a high seismic hazard region. We consider area sources as well as fault sources coupled with background zones, tailoring a model developed in the SHARE project for the subject site. We identify several problems with assigned maximum magnitudes for fault and in-slab subduction sources. We also add two sources not previously considered – the crustal Lakes fault and the Calabrian arc subduction interface. We select GMMs that are better constrained in the hazard-controlling range of magnitudes and distances than those typically used in prior Italian applications. Short-period median spectral accelerations at the 2475-year return period exceed those from prior SHARE studies by about 10–15%, and those from the Italian building code by amounts ranging from 15% to 96%. Despite the site being located in a region with finite faults capable of generating large events, the 2475-year hazard is dominated by source zones that allow for earthquakes directly beneath the site.
Calabrian arc
Global ground motion models
Maximum magnitude
Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Source characterization
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11770/306343
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