Reconstructing flood events in mediterranean coastal areas using different reanalyses and high-resolution meteorological models

Reliable reanalysis products can be exploited to drive mesoscale numerical models and generate high-resolution reconstructions of high-impact weather events. Within this framework, regional weather and climate models may greatly benefit from the recent release of the ERA5 product, an improvement to the ERA-Interim dataset. In this study, two different convection-permitting models driven by these two re-analysis datasets are used to reproduce three heavy precipitation events affecting a Mediterranean region. Moreover, different sea surface temperature (SST) initializations are tested to assess how higher-resolution SST fields improve the simulation of high-impact events characterized by strong air–sea interactions. Finally, the coupling with a distributed hydrological model allows evaluating the impact at the ground, specifically assessing the possible added value of the ERA5 dataset for the high-resolution simulation of extreme hy-drometeorological events over the Calabria region (southern Italy). Results, based on the comparison against multiple-source precipitation observations, show no clear systematic benefit to using the ERA5 dataset; moreover, intense convective activity can introduce uncertainties masking the signal provided by the boundary conditions of the different reanalyses. The effect of the high-resolution SST fields is even more difficult to detect. The uncertainties propagate and amplify along the modeling chain, where the spatial resolution increases up to the hydrological model. Nevertheless, even in very small catchments, some of the experiments provide reasonably accurate results, suggesting that an ensemble approach could be suitable to cope with uncertainties affecting the overall meteo-hydrological chain, especially for small catchments.