Prediction of slow-moving landslide mobility due to rainfall using a two-wedges model

In the present study, the landslides cyclically reactivated by water-table oscillations due to rainfall are dealt with. The principal kind of motion that usually characterizes such landslides is a slide with rather small velocity. As another feature, soil deformations are substantially accumulated inside a narrow shear zone situated below the landslide body so that the latter approximately slides rigidly. Within this framework, a new approach is developed in this paper to predict the mobility of this type of landslides due to rainfall. To this end, a two-wedges model is used to schematize the moving soil mass. Some analytical solutions are derived to link rain recordings with water-table fluctuations and in turn to landslide displacements. A well-documented landslide frequently activated by rainfall is studied to check the forecasting capacity of the proposed method.