Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to moderate the risks of energy performance contracts in building renovation: A case study on an Italian social housing district

One of the pillars of the policies undertaken to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 in the European Union is the decarbonisation of the construction sector. Massive energy renovation of existing buildings is expected in the coming years and encouraged by supporting incentives. A considerable amount of resources will be invested in this area and the large-scale interventions will be conveyed by Energy Service Companies that usually employ Energy Performance Contracts for the implementation of the restructuring interventions. This form of contract is generally bound to the achievement of a certain level of energy performance, which ensures an adequate profit margin for the Energy Service Company and the users subscribing the contract. But how reliable is the forecast of energy consumption and to what extent could it constitute a well-founded guarantee based on an Energy Performance Contract? The analysis proposed in this paper aims at investigating in this direction and proposes a design methodology based on Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis that can be validly applied to reduce the investment risk. A case study consisting of an Italian social housing complex is considered for energy, economic, and environmental evaluations. The results show that the Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis allows for identifying corrective measures at the design stage, making it possible to increase the chances of success of the intervention by 60%, raise the earning potential by 4% compared to the predictions, and obtain an additional reduction in CO2 emissions of 40%. This makes the investment more attractive and safe promoting the participation of Energy Service Companies in the renovation of the existing building stock.