Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: a spatial perspective

Population trends in Italy are strongly spatially differentiated, with some municipalities showing a systematic loss of population, and others showing an equally continuous demographic increase. Here, we focus our attention on the spatial dimension of population change, looking at how different socio-economic and demographic dimensions affect population changes, as well as their spatial effects. After performing a preliminary descriptive analysis of the trends of population growth and decline in Italy over the last 40 years and the relevant demographic components, we used a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to investigate the potential existence of a diffusion process and the determinants of the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019 at the municipal level. The spatial dimension and local heterogeneities in Italy were found to be highly relevant in the analysis of population decline. Moreover, we examined the relationship between demographic, social and economic factors and the demographic growth/decline of municipalities in the subsequent 10 years. Among the different covariates included in the model, the demographic composition of the population, the female activity rate, the youth employment rate and the presence/absence of a school proved to be strongly related to population growth and decline in Italian municipalities.