The day-ahead photovoltaic electricity forecast is increasingly necessary for grid operators and for energy communities. In the present work, the hourly PV production is estimated using two models based on feedforward neural networks (FFNNs). Most existing models use solar radiation as an input. Instead, the models proposed here use numerical weather prediction (NWP) data: ambient temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, which are easily accessible to anyone. The first proposed model uses multiple inputs, while the second one uses only the necessary information. A sensitivity analysis allows for the identification of the variables that are most influential on the estimation accuracy. This study concludes that the hourly temperature trend is the most important variable for prediction. The models' accuracy was tested using experimental and NWP data, with the second model having almost the same accuracy as the first despite using fewer input data. The results obtained using experimental data as inputs show a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.95 for the hourly PV energy produced. The RMSE is about 6.4% of the panel peak power. When NWP data are used as inputs, R2 is 0.879 and the RMSE is 10.5%. These models can have a significant impact by enabling individual energy communities to make their forecasts, resulting in energy savings and increased self-consumed energy.

Hourly Photovoltaic Production Prediction Using Numerical Weather Data and Neural Networks for Solar Energy Decision Support

Nicoletti, Francesco
;
Bevilacqua, Piero
2024-01-01

Abstract

The day-ahead photovoltaic electricity forecast is increasingly necessary for grid operators and for energy communities. In the present work, the hourly PV production is estimated using two models based on feedforward neural networks (FFNNs). Most existing models use solar radiation as an input. Instead, the models proposed here use numerical weather prediction (NWP) data: ambient temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, which are easily accessible to anyone. The first proposed model uses multiple inputs, while the second one uses only the necessary information. A sensitivity analysis allows for the identification of the variables that are most influential on the estimation accuracy. This study concludes that the hourly temperature trend is the most important variable for prediction. The models' accuracy was tested using experimental and NWP data, with the second model having almost the same accuracy as the first despite using fewer input data. The results obtained using experimental data as inputs show a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.95 for the hourly PV energy produced. The RMSE is about 6.4% of the panel peak power. When NWP data are used as inputs, R2 is 0.879 and the RMSE is 10.5%. These models can have a significant impact by enabling individual energy communities to make their forecasts, resulting in energy savings and increased self-consumed energy.
2024
PV forecast
artificial neural network
photovoltaic
weather forecast
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11770/363912
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