Statistical Modelling of Extreme Precipitation Indices Supporting Urban Spatial Planning Processes

In this paper, we analyze how statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices can support urban planners in the analysis and classification of the level of climate sensitivity of the territory and in the subsequent definition of sustainable adaptive planning and design choices. These activities are part of a research project that addresses the issue of climate change from the urban planning perspective to identify solutions to current and future environmental challenges, increasing the climate resilience of infrastructures and communities in urban, rural and coastal areas. These research activities are based on the desire to promote integration between the approaches commonly adopted by urban planners and climate specialists to plan adequate joint risk reduction strategies. As part of this study, the focus will be on the risks produced by the greater frequency and intensity of floods, assessed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) as one of the key risks for Europe. Specifically, our attention focuses on pluvial flooding, proposing the definition of a statistical modelling of indices related to extreme precipitation and its application to the context of the Calabria Region, in Italy. The indices are recommended by the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) and elaborated starting from official historical data recorded by 146 telemetry active rain gauges, disseminated in the experimentation context.