Integrating geomorphology, statistic and numerical simulations for landslide invasion hazard scenarios mapping: An example in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy)

This paper highlights a multidisciplinary method for evaluating debris-flow invasion hazard, based ongeological–geomorphological field survey and statistical analysis coupled with numerical simulationsthrough Cellular Automata. The developed hazard assessment methodology consists of differentconsolidated techniques for the (a) identification of spatial susceptibility, i.e. potential landslide sourcesin previous unfailed slopes, (b) estimation of the probability of cover thickness involvement in initiallandsliding, (c) evaluation of temporal probability and (d) numerical modeling of potential landslides.In this study, the SCIDDICA Cellular Automata landslide model has been considered and applied to thenorthern sector of Mount Pendolo (Sorrento Peninsula), which was affected by several landslides inhistorical time. Model calibration has been performed by considering past events of similar scale andtype. Results of these simulations were satisfactory as proven by the comparison between real andsimulated reference events. Several possible source areas have been hypothesized and a potential futurelandslide scenario has been simulated by using SCIDDICA. By associating to each simulation a spatial,magnitude and temporal probability, a landslide invasion hazard scenario was mapped.